We've Got China and Taiwan Backwards

China has a GDP per capita of $18,200, while in Taiwan, the GDP per capita is $50,500. I point this out because if one were to believe the narrative of mainstream media and political pundits, Taiwan is in danger of Chinese invasion pretty much at the pleasure of the CCP. Further, we are to kow-tow to Chinese threats, say many of them, because if we don’t, we are inciting them to attack.

Now, to be clear and those of you who have read me for a time know this, I am a neutralist if that is a word. I believe that we Americans are NOT a replay of the Roman or any other empire. We are instead Ferengi, or if you are not a trekkie, Phoenicians. In other words, from our founding and even the first settlements on the continent, we have been traders and not warriors. Oh sure, we have intervened particularly in the last century, but every time we have it has led to unintended consequences of horrific proportions. But that is not what this blog is about. I have beaten that horse plenty!

All of that a given, the Taiwanese are not going to be invaded by China, ever. Instead, it is far more likely that they are going to take over the mainland. Yes, you read that right. The island will take over the whole country and I will go a step further. Not a shot will have to fired. They will be invited. I will elucidate.

First, the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) puts on a pretty parade. All of that red and gold looks great on TV and since the average person has no idea what they are looking at as the weapons roll by, they can be scary. However, they are armed almost exclusively by Chinese knock-offs of Russian technology or Chinese-developed variations of the same. If Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine, and if the countless wars and dust-ups between Israel and its Arab neighbors over the years have taught us anything it is that Russian military equipment sucks. It looks good at a distance but fights like shit. Take it from me, former Russian Linguist and Analyst at NSA. It is garbage. Every single time US/Western military equipment (France, England, Israel) comes up against Russian or Chinese crap, it dominates in every aspect, air, land, and sea. Guess what’s defending Taiwan?

Second, it’s not as if Taiwan will be surprised. They have been preparing for it for over 70 years. What, do you think that they have been sitting there and just watching helplessly? Nope. They are armed to the teeth and defended by a very well motivated, western-trained military that regularly exercises with western powers and is very, very competent and impressive. Outside of Israel and possibly the South Koreans, theirs may be the best military in the world. Ours is great too, but we are not fighting for national survival all the time.

Third, the Taiwan Strait is 110 miles wide. In comparison, the English Channel is 21 miles across. Hitler, with the entire armed might of a victorious Third Reich having routed the French and English on European soil could not mount an attack across the channel. It was too much logistically. Yes, equipment is better and more sophisticated now, but so are defensive systems like anti-ship and missile weapons. The Chinese would be slaughtered before ever getting going as they emerged from port to attack. Missiles, submarines, heavy artillery, and superb aircraft would annihilate them. The idea of a Taiwan invasion is just plain ludicrous and the stuff of propaganda to push higher defence budgets and the military industrial complex. Not to be cocky, but the Taiwanese cannot lose.

Fourth, the PLA sucks historically. It has lost to pretty much every enemy it has ever faced with the exception of terrorizing its own people. The Vietnamese, Indians, and Burmese have all kicked their asses since the communists took over China in 1948. The Taiwanese are at least as competent as all of those, far better equipped, and much richer. God pity the Chinese if they try to invade. It would be a bloodbath, and the Chinese know it.

And that brings me to my final point, that China is on the brink of revolution. The real estate market has collapsed, the contagion of defaults and mortgages not being paid has spread to the banking system, bank runs are happening every single day, and zero-Covid policy has infuriated the people. Further, youth unemployment has reached 30%, and historically when the kids are idle in any country, trouble is sure to follow. As much as the Chinese government tries to censor the internet, don’t be naive, they can’t. There are lots of work-arounds and the Chinese people know that the corruption of the communist party is epic and the root cause of the unfolding disaster.

The government of Taiwan, formerly known as Formosa when Chiang Kai-shek exiled himself and his nationalist army in his defeat by Mao’s forces, is strongly pro-freedom, and an established, very stable democracy and has enriched its people. The mainland Chinese know this, and when the shit hits the fan and as a culture that reveres wisdom and experience, it would not be surprising for the Chinese to turn to Taiwan as either brothers or at least partners out from under communism with the know-how to recover and save the nation as a free country. Hong Kong will be a big part of it, too, like a cancer in a diseased and decaying body.

Of course, who really knows? Answer: Nobody, but this is a more likely outcome for China than what the mainstream is preaching. The Chinese are a threat to nobody but themselves as they repeat the failures of central control made by lots of countries before and none successfully. The End is nigh and inevitable. The forces of freedom are likely to prevail after a bloody and messy civil conflict. That would be good for the world as absent corruption and communism, China is a natural ally of the United States and our goods/services. Let’s hope I’m right.

Just saying.